The mining and metals sector faces a new era of unpredictability, as operational complexity emerges as the top risk for 2026, according to the EY Top 10 Business Risks and Opportunities survey.
Based on responses from 500 senior mining and metals executives worldwide, study results indicate the sector’s sharp pivot away from external and strategic issues to short-term operational factors impacting productivity and costs.
The spotlight on operational complexity, topping the risk radar in its first appearance – underscores the pressure to deliver predictable output as mines get deeper, ore grades decline, and costs increase.
“Operational complexity is the focus, not just because of uncertainty but because the sector recognizes it must disrupt traditional ways of operating to win. As mines age or are replaced, complexity will inevitably increase, an issue exacerbated by a need to control costs and improve productivity.
“But miners that use this moment as an opportunity to accelerate innovation, including through the utilization of digital and AI will position themselves for growth when certainty returns,” said Paul Mitchell, EY Global Mining & Metals Leader.
Mitchell further said investors are backing a switch to growth. With big ticket M&A proving difficult, miners are instead focused on getting the most out of existing assets, enhancing productivity, capital discipline and technology adoption to meet demand and take advantage of higher commodity prices.
“The proposed Anglo-Teck merger underscores how strategic imperatives, particularly in copper, will still drive significant deals.”
Miners are also pursuing bolt-on acquisitions, joint ventures and alternative financing models, including royalties, streaming, sustainable finance and government incentives.
Mining companies may be focused on short-term issues now, but this is partly to lay the foundations for long-term growth. For the third year in a row, miners have raised capital allocation to growth while reducing returns to shareholders.
Both traditional and non-traditional investors back the approach, particularly in copper where a supply gap offers once-in-a-generation opportunities.
LTO is still a priority for miners as companies prepare to meet growing expectations around performance. Miners will be most effective by focusing on local communities, particularly as reduced government spending in some regions means communities increasingly look to corporate citizens to step up.
The rise of resource nationalism also emphasizes the strategic importances of strong LTO. The EY survey reveals miners expect governments to take more control over a wide range of issues, particularly around sustainability and governance.